The southern half of Blaine County can expect to see elevated wildfire danger in July due to a bumper crop of grasses, weeds and other fine fuels sprouting this spring, according to a long-range forecast published this month by the National Interagency Fire Center.
The Big Wood region finished the ski season with about 91% of normal snowpack levels, according to precipitation data published by the Natural Resources Conservation Service on Tuesday, April 30.
Southern and central Idaho should see low wildfire potential in May and June due to “continued storm systems moving across the region,” cooler temperatures and higher humidity, according to the National Interagency Fire Center’s April forecast.
“However, the higher elevations of central Idaho may be a concern later this summer with the below-normal snowpack,” the agency stated.
The NIFC’s Great Basin forecast zone spans east to west from the Tetons to the Sierra Nevada and includes central and southern Idaho.
According to the center’s recent forecast, the Great Basin region experienced a warmer, drier period “just past mid-March,” promoting early snowmelt and thus early plant growth, or “green-up.” While this increased growth of small twigs, needles and grasses can mean more potential fuel for wildfires later in the summer, well-saturated soils from the past two winters should act as a protective barrier, the center said.
The Great Basin region should see fire potential pick up in May and June “from south to north,” the center said. Wildfire threat should peak in July, “or possibly as early as June,” in central and southern Idaho, northern Nevada and northern Utah as fine fuels cure and dry out, the forecast said.
“The North American Monsoon looks to be delayed or weaker this year, which could result in warmer and drier conditions across the Great Basin,” the center stated. “This adds to the likelihood of significant fuel drying in June and July, with better chances of above normal fire potential. Most of the fire potential concerns will be in the lower elevations.”
As of April 30, only the Panhandle area of Idaho was listed in “moderate to severe” drought. The eastern half of Custer County, including Challis, was still seeing “abnormally dry” conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Blaine County has been drought-free since April 2023, according to the database.
El Niño—a weather pattern driven by warmer ocean temperatures that causes the Pacific jet stream to shift southward—should continue to weaken this spring, suggesting a possible return to the cooler-water La Niña pattern by the fall, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. La Niña summers generally favor hurricane formation, according to the agency.
According to the NIFC, past transitions from La Niña to El Niño in the summers of 1973, 1998, 2010 and 2016 “produced a warmer and drier end of spring across the Pacific Northwest ... followed by cooler and wetter summer periods.”
“El Niño … is still hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but signs are pointing to a quick transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period,” NOAA stated in a spring long-range forecast. “There’s a 62% chance of La Niña getting the golden ticket by June-August. Stay tuned.” 
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Why ae there no comments related to this very scary article relative to the lack of preparedness Blaine County has instituted to protect private and federal lands from wildfires? Sheriiff Harkins should immediately request the County Commission to fund active patrol of campfire sites throughout the county - from Cary to Smiley Creek - this fire season. Additionally, helicopters should be stationed at Friedman and, perhaps, Smiley Creek, as well. Billions of dollars are at stake and it appears NOTHING is being done to protect our investments and natural resources.
Why is there no fuel reduction plan for Hailey`s Green Belt (Fire Belt)?
@badger - Relevant question, though I think the nature of this beast requires a comprehensive effort countywide. Did I miss it even beginning? There was talk here about bulldozing the willows, which I think misses the problem and is another waste of federal money.
(WRLT money is worth more than federal money).
Renowned Environmentalists and experts have concluded; 'fuels reduction' DOES NOT help prevent or control wildfire... an ounce of prevention IS NOT worth pound of cure.
I would think it would depend on the specific situation. Hailey paid for a study to inform them where their trees are. [beam]
@ Jim - If so, let's you and I get Sun Valley not to accept BLM money for its fire department to bulldoze the willows. RE: campfires out Trail Creek, is that why USFS/SNRA won't forbid campfires during fire season knowing La Nina is on the way here? Is that why Blaine County is doing NOTHING to protect private property in Blaine County?
USFS Fire Fuel Reduction Programs:
1. Firewise Communities Program
2. Community Wildfire Defense Program
3. Shared Stewardship Strategy
4. State and Private Forestry Hazardous Fuel Reduction Program
@Jim - Banning campfires on federal and county lands would remove the threat and risk of know-nothing flatlanders hanging out here during fire season. Agree?
@JGB - May 6, 2024 – The lack of recent rain means conditions are getting drier in Blaine County, increasing the potential for brushfires. Taking a few precautions now can go a long way to protect homes and businesses from these fires, which can be all too common this time of year.
“Fires cannot burn without fuel, so the best defense is a good offense,” said Fire Rescue Chief Michael Tucker. “In short, clear the area around your house of anything that will go up in flames easily – including stacks of firewood, portable propane tanks, and dead, dry vegetation.”
The rule of thumb accepted by a variety of fire prevention agencies, including the National Fire Protection Association, is that all flammable items within 30 feet of a structure should be removed. Homeowners should clear roofs, eaves, gutters, wood decks and patios of leaves, needles, and other debris.
“Additionally, do not store things under decks or porches, and consider using rocks or gravel in those areas instead grass or mulch,” Tucker said. “Wood-driven fires, like brushfires, create embers that can be carried quite far, and tend to find their way to the same nooks and crannies where leaves accumulate. Trimming trees that are close to homes and other structures is also recommended.”
Barbecue coals should be fully extinguished before adding them to garbage receptacles.
“Please don’t throw cigarette butts out of car windows,” Tucker said. “It’s litter at best and fire hazard at worst.”
The current Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) mean is 343 with some areas as low as 267 and other areas as high as 394, and up 12 points from the previous day. The KBDI is a range from 0 (zero) to 800 in which 0 is the wettest condition and 800 is the dryest, or drought.
“If something catches fire in your yard – or if you see something burning as you are driving, please call 9-1-1 sooner rather than later.”
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