SNP leadership: How will Humza Yousaf be replaced as first minister of Scotland?

Who is standing to succeed Humza Yousaf?

Potential candidates to replace Humza Yousaf from the current cabinet include Shona Robison (deputy first minister and finance secretary), Jenny Gilruth (education and skills) and Neil Gray (health and social care).

Kate Forbes, runner-up in 2023, is also a potential candidate. The other unsuccessful candidate in 2023, Ash Regan, defected to Alba in October 2023. 

John Swinney, previous deputy first minister and party leader, has been touted as a potential ‘unity candidate’, although he did not stand in the 2023 contest, saying at the time that it was time for a ‘fresh perspective’.

What does Yousaf’s resignation mean for the SNP’s independence strategy?

The Supreme Court ruled in November 2022 that the Scottish parliament could not hold a referendum without Westminster approval. Sturgeon’s declared ‘plan B’ was to use the next general election as a ‘de facto referendum’ on independence.

Under this approach, the SNP would define the next UK general election as a de facto referendum on independence. If the SNP and other pro-independence parties received over 50% of the vote, the SNP would “consider that a mandate to enter negotiations with the UK government to secure independence”. An alternative version of this strategy would use the 2026 Holyrood elections as the de facto referendum instead.

Humza Yousaf initially distanced himself from this strategy, saying “there’s no magic wand that can deliver independence” and argued that “the route to independence is by growing popular support”. ¹⁷ Financial Times, ‘No ‘magic wand’ for Scottish independence, warns SNP leadership candidate’, www.ft.com/content/d612f37f-0485-4bf2-8025-2a003f4c633e. However, as first minister he stated that independence would be on “page one, line one” of the next SNP manifesto. 

In October 2023, delegates at the SNP conference voted in favour of an amended strategy, that if the SNP win the majority of Scottish seats at the next UK general election the Scottish government has a mandate to negotiate with the UK government on either a referendum or independence itself. ¹⁸ Johnson S, ‘Humza Yousaf changes independence strategy for third time in a year’, The Telegraph, 15 October 2023, www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/15/humza-yousaf-snp-scottish-independence-strategy. Potential successors to Yousaf will be expected to set out their independence strategy as part of their leadership campaigns.

How have previous first ministers of Scotland been chosen?

Yousaf was the sixth person to become first minister since devolution began in 1999 and the third from the SNP. 

The first Scottish first minister was Scottish Labour’s Donald Dewar who, after forming a coalition with Scottish Liberal Democrats, received the backing of 71 members and was nominated as first minister. ¹⁹ BBC News, ‘UK Politics: Dewar wins top job’, BBC News, 13 May 1999, retrieved 29 April 2024, www.news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/342318.stm.

After Dewar’s untimely death in 2000, he was replaced by Henry McLeish – after a period in which deputy first minister and Liberal Democrat leader Jim Wallace served as caretaker leader. ²⁰ BBC News, ’ McLeish wins first minister title’, BBC News, 26 October 2000, retrieved 29 April 2024, www.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/991398.stm.  McLeish himself lasted just a year, resigning after an expenses scandal. His successor Jack McConnell then led Labour and the Scottish Government for six years, with the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition being renewed after the 2003 election.

At the 2007 election, the SNP became (very narrowly) the largest party in the Scottish Parliament for the first time, winning 47 seats to Labour’s 46. SNP leader Alex Salmond became first minister, leading a minority government until 2011, at which election the SNP won an outright majority of 69 out of 129 seats.

Salmond served as first minister until the Scottish independence referendum of September 2014, stepping down after the defeat for the Yes campaign. He was replaced by Nicola Sturgeon, who was unchallenged in the SNP leadership contest. Sturgeon was re-appointed first minister after the 2016 and 2021 elections.