Will La Niña bring action to 'Sailfish Alley?'

It's official. We're going to have a La Niña winter.

So what does that mean for our fishing along the shores of Eastern Florida? Will we remember the winter of 2017-18 as an epic season for pompano? Will the Spanish mackerel catch be one for the ages?

Two particular group of anglers — sailfish tournament participants, and the offshore charter boat fleet which steers clients to sailfish releases — are quite interested in the fishing forecast for the next few months. Between now and February, it would really be great if boats could get five or six chances a day to catch and release a sailfish. Perhaps a visitor spending a few days here could catch his or her first sailfish, which is still something to be celebrated. Or a tournament team could celebrate victory with a catch of 20 or more sailfish over a three day span while competing against the world's best dead bait trollers.

More:Sailfish season is heading downsea

Either way, when the offshore anglers in this part of Florida enjoy good winter sailfishing, the word spreads. It's good for our fishing economy which, in turn, is good for the rest of us.

So I pay particular attention to obtuse weather forecasts, like whether we're going to experience an El Niño, a La Niña or it's going to be "neutral," whatever that is. (Or is it ñeutral?)

What is La Niña? Weather forecasters explain it is when a tropical ocean current in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ecuador dips at least 0.5 degrees Celsius for an extended period of time. The lower the temperature dips, the stronger the La Niña. The opposite, when the current is 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer, creates the famous El Niño condition. The warmer the deviation from its normal temperature, the stronger the event.

Why should we care about an ocean current about 2,000 miles from Sailfish Alley? Believe it or not, it helps make our weather here.

We had La Niña last winter. It resulted in a drier than normal and warmer than normal December, January and February than we usually have in Florida. That was fine for any of us who appreciate clean inshore water in our estuaries. The near-record drought conditions cleaned up our waterways pretty nicely.

For perspective, the winter of 2015-16 produced one of the three strongest El Niños on record. What resulted was one of the worst years ever for Lake Okeechobee discharges punctuated in May, June and July by the worst cyanobacteria blue-green algae bloom ever observed in Florida's estuaries forcing Gov. Rick Scott to declare a state of emergency in four counties — Martin, St. Lucie, Palm Beach and Lee.

That won't happen this year, thankfully. But will La Niña help make the sailfishing be good?

Maybe.

In the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean between Jacksonville and Key West, there are resident sailfish which call Florida home year-round. But each winter, as part of a mass migration of species heading south, untold numbers of sailfish head to Miami, the Florida Keys and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. They largely follow the contour of the continental shelf and western edge of the Gulf Stream so as not to battle the northward heading current every day. That brings these fish within range of our bluewater fishermen.

It's why Stuart earned the nickname "Sailfish Capital of the World" in in 1938. It's why anglers call the area from Fort Pierce to Boca Raton "Sailfish Alley." It's a big reason why the West Palm Beach Fishing Club was founded in 1934 and the Stuart Sailfish Club was founded in 1941, and why both organizations were leaders in creating the catch and release philosophy for sailfish.

The changes La Niña will bring to the nation's weather will be noticed, but it will look a lot like last winter. This year the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a weak La Niña.

That's not all bad. Last December, the Pirates Cove Resort Sailfish Classic saw 222 sailfish caught and released in three days by 24 boats. In January, the Pelican Yacht Club fleet of 23 boats amassed 343 releases fishing three of four days which stands as the area's 8th largest all time total.

I matched up the area's top 10 catches with the La Niña and El Niño activity on the Golden Gate Weather Services page. The best week of sailfishing ever enjoyed along Sailfish Alley was the first week of January 2012. The 29-boat fleet fishing the Pelican Yacht Club Billfish Invitational tournament out of Fort Pierce racked up a tournament record 736 sailfish trolling. The 46-boat fleet fishing the West Palm Beach Fishing Club's Silver Sailfish Derby rolled up a tournament record 1,174 sailfish mostly live baiting. Many boats in the two fleets were fishing within sight of each other between Hutchinson Island and Jupiter Island. There was a moderate La Niña that season.

The second best total area wide was the 538 sailfish caught by 45 boats over four days of fishing during the Stuart Sailfish Club Light Tackle Tournament in December 1997. That was the year I first learned what El Niño even was. In January 2010, the coldest month in years in South Florida, the 29 boats fishing the Pelican Yacht Club tournament caught 408 sailfish during a moderate El Niño season. The 386 caught by the 2004 Pelican Yacht Club fleet of 52 did so during what forecasters termed a "neutral" year.

So what does all this mean? It means forecasting fishing trends is about as reliable as forecasting weather trends. No one really knows what will happen, but the crews fishing in these tournaments and daily on charters are the best ones to connect anglers with whatever action the winds, cold fronts and currents bring.

Ed Killer is the outdoors columnist for Treasure Coast Newspapers and TCPalm.com, and this column reflects his opinion. Friend him on Facebook at Ed Killer, follow him on Twitter @tcpalmekiller or email him at ed.killer@tcpalm.com or call him at 772-221-4201.